User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/31

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(Faults)
(Faults)
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* People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040.
* People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040.
* Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11.
* Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11.
 +
* Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought).
 +
* At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct).
 +
* Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90.
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* 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions
==Corrections==
==Corrections==

Revision as of 12:47, 1 April 2013

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Entry title

  • Pilot test

Comments

  • The open-ended data are pretty unruly. They are also too short.
  • Everyone has predicted the price would go up so far.
  • Initial confidence in theory is often very high, making it hard to go higher.

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 1

  • Insert content here...

Participant 2

  • Insert content here...

Faults

  • Many people fail to give predictions for 2015-2040.
  • People do not seem to be fully understanding the similarity question and P(Theory) questions.
  • Persistent inability to disregard inflation.
  • Explanation two as a restatement of the prices.
  • Initial confidence is too high.
  • People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040.
  • Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11.
  • Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought).
  • At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct).
  • Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90.
  • 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions

Corrections

  • Improve open-ended data by asking them to make a story.



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