User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/31: Difference between revisions
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* People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040. | * People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040. | ||
* Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11. | * Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11. | ||
* Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought). | |||
* At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct). | |||
* Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90. | |||
* 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions | |||
==Corrections== | ==Corrections== |
Revision as of 09:47, 1 April 2013
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Entry title
Comments
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New DataParticipant 1
Participant 2
Faults
Corrections
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