Entry title
- The open-ended data are pretty unruly. They are also too short.
- Everyone has predicted the price would go up so far.
- Initial confidence in theory is often very high, making it hard to go higher.
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New Data
Participant 1
Participant 2
Faults
- Many people fail to give predictions for 2015-2040.
- People do not seem to be fully understanding the similarity question and P(Theory) questions.
- Persistent inability to disregard inflation.
- Explanation two as a restatement of the prices.
- Initial confidence is too high.
- People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040.
- Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11.
- Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought).
- At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct).
- Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90.
- 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions
Corrections
- Improve open-ended data by asking them to make a story.
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Project name
