User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/01

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(Faults)
(Corrections)
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* Reduce font size slightly
* Reduce font size slightly
* Assure participants that their intuitive estimates are ok.
* Assure participants that their intuitive estimates are ok.
 +
* Added to intro "You should draw on your own intuitions to make these estimates, as sometimes these intuitions are right."

Revision as of 10:56, 2 April 2013

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Entry title

  • Pretest 5

Comments

  • Pretty much everyone expects the prices to go up.
  • Having backcasts may provide a strong signal to reduce confidence. Condition without backcasts.
  • The story writing drastically improved the quality of the open-ended text.


Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 1

  • Participant remarked that lack of information made confidence low, and this low confidence made it difficult to generate a coherent explantion.

Your survey was a bit confusing mainly due to the lack of information. I was simply guessing answers for the price of coal. I had no knowledge about past prices and so could only guess about future prices. So my confidence level was not high at all on my answers, which made it difficult to provide coherent explanations for my reasoning. Other than that I did not find the survey that difficult.

Participant 2

  • Insert content here...

Faults

  • Font too large.
  • Complaint that there is not enough info to make the estimates.
  • Confidence in stories is still very high.
  • Cannot assess the accuracy of Story One.

The question "How similar are the actual prices of coal between 1980 and 2010 to what you would predict based on Story Two?" is a bit confusing because you don't have anything to base the second story on other than assumption. You have no way of knowing if the prices will go up or down.

There is no way to answer the question "What was the average price of coal in the United States in 1990?" accurately with the information given

Corrections

  • Reduce font size slightly
  • Assure participants that their intuitive estimates are ok.
  • Added to intro "You should draw on your own intuitions to make these estimates, as sometimes these intuitions are right."



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