User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/01

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Entry title

  • Pretest 5

Comments

  • Pretty much everyone expects the prices to go up.
  • Having backcasts may provide a strong signal to reduce confidence. Condition without backcasts.
  • The story writing drastically improved the quality of the open-ended text.


Unexpected Observations

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New Hypotheses

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Current Protocol

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Current Materials

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New Data

Participant 1

  • Participant remarked that lack of information made confidence low, and this low confidence made it difficult to generate a coherent explantion.

Your survey was a bit confusing mainly due to the lack of information. I was simply guessing answers for the price of coal. I had no knowledge about past prices and so could only guess about future prices. So my confidence level was not high at all on my answers, which made it difficult to provide coherent explanations for my reasoning. Other than that I did not find the survey that difficult.

Participant 2

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Faults

  • Font too large.
  • Complaint that there is not enough info to make the estimates.
  • Confidence in stories is still very high.

Corrections

  • Reduce font size slightly
  • Assure participants that their intuitive estimates are ok.



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