User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/02

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==Entry title==
==Entry title==
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* Pretest 6
+
* Pretest 6, 7, 8
==Comments==
==Comments==
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* Coal Price Predictions (~72% up):
+
Total results including pretests 1-7 and pilot test 1:
 +
 
 +
* Coal Price Predictions (~78% up):
**Up predictions: 18
**Up predictions: 18
**Down predictions: 3  
**Down predictions: 3  
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**No Change: 2
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**No Change (NC): 2
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*Incorrect Inflation Answers: 5/18 (28%)
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*Incorrect Inflation Answers: 5/23 (~25%)
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*Bad Explanations: 12/23 (~50%)
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**Mentions inflation: 4
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**Just says supply and demand: 8
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*Increased confidence after UP/NC predictions: 11/19
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*Perfect confidence in explanation: 2/20
==Unexpected Observations==
==Unexpected Observations==
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* Suggested more difficult quality checking questions. Question One is definitely too easy.
* Suggested more difficult quality checking questions. Question One is definitely too easy.
* Suggested the second similarity question is unnecessary.
* Suggested the second similarity question is unnecessary.
 +
 +
===Participant 3===
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* Removed voice recording mention from risks.
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* Changed "sometimes intuition is right" to "use your intuitiona nd best judgment"
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* Suggested changing the 2005 U.S. dollars for inflation, but I disagree.
 +
* Added "You will be asked questions about your story later and it will be referred to as 'Your Story One'."
==Faults==
==Faults==

Current revision

Project name Main project page
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Entry title

  • Pretest 6, 7, 8

Comments

Total results including pretests 1-7 and pilot test 1:

  • Coal Price Predictions (~78% up):
    • Up predictions: 18
    • Down predictions: 3
    • No Change (NC): 2
  • Incorrect Inflation Answers: 5/23 (~25%)
  • Bad Explanations: 12/23 (~50%)
    • Mentions inflation: 4
    • Just says supply and demand: 8
  • Increased confidence after UP/NC predictions: 11/19
  • Perfect confidence in explanation: 2/20

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 1

  • Favorable to big text.
  • Wanted information on desirable story length.
  • Suggested changing story to explanation.
  • Wanted it to be called "your story"
  • Wanted warning on how important/needed estimates would be.
  • Wanted uneditable boxes.
  • Wanted real coal prices on top of page rather than bottom.
  • Misunderstanding with prediction check.

Participant 2

  • Suggested more difficult quality checking questions. Question One is definitely too easy.
  • Suggested the second similarity question is unnecessary.

Participant 3

  • Removed voice recording mention from risks.
  • Changed "sometimes intuition is right" to "use your intuitiona nd best judgment"
  • Suggested changing the 2005 U.S. dollars for inflation, but I disagree.
  • Added "You will be asked questions about your story later and it will be referred to as 'Your Story One'."

Faults

  • Question checks too easy.
  • Boxes should be uneditable.

Corrections

  • Changed it to "your story"
  • Provided information about story length.
  • Made attention checks on a separate page. Made the last one more difficult.



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