Entry title
Total results including pretests 1-7 and pilot test 1:
- Coal Price Predictions (~78% up):
- Up predictions: 18
- Down predictions: 3
- No Change (NC): 2
- Incorrect Inflation Answers: 5/23 (~25%)
- Bad Explanations: 12/23 (~50%)
- Mentions inflation: 4
- Just says supply and demand: 8
- Increased confidence after UP/NC predictions: 11/19
- Perfect confidence in explanation: 2/20
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New Data
Participant 1
- Favorable to big text.
- Wanted information on desirable story length.
- Suggested changing story to explanation.
- Wanted it to be called "your story"
- Wanted warning on how important/needed estimates would be.
- Wanted uneditable boxes.
- Wanted real coal prices on top of page rather than bottom.
- Misunderstanding with prediction check.
Participant 2
- Suggested more difficult quality checking questions. Question One is definitely too easy.
- Suggested the second similarity question is unnecessary.
Participant 3
- Removed voice recording mention from risks.
- Changed "sometimes intuition is right" to "use your intuitiona nd best judgment"
- Suggested changing the 2005 U.S. dollars for inflation, but I disagree.
- Added "You will be asked questions about your story later and it will be referred to as 'Your Story One'."
Faults
- Question checks too easy.
- Boxes should be uneditable.
Corrections
- Changed it to "your story"
- Provided information about story length.
- Made attention checks on a separate page. Made the last one more difficult.
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Project name
