User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/03: Difference between revisions
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|style="background-color: #EEE"|[[Image:owwnotebook_icon.png|128px]]<span style="font-size:22px;"> Project name</span> | |style="background-color: #EEE"|[[Image:owwnotebook_icon.png|128px]]<span style="font-size:22px;"> Project name</span> | ||
|style="background-color: #F2F2F2" align="center"| | |style="background-color: #F2F2F2" align="center"|[[File:Report.png|frameless|link={{#sub:{{FULLPAGENAME}}|0|-11}}]][[{{#sub:{{FULLPAGENAME}}|0|-11}}|Main project page]]<br />{{#if:{{#lnpreventry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}|[[File:Resultset_previous.png|frameless|link={{#lnpreventry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}]][[{{#lnpreventry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}{{!}}Previous entry]] }}{{#if:{{#lnnextentry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}|[[{{#lnnextentry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}{{!}}Next entry]][[File:Resultset_next.png|frameless|link={{#lnnextentry:{{FULLPAGENAME}}}}]]}} | ||
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==Entry title== | ==Entry title== | ||
* | * Pilot test two. 11 additional participants | ||
==Comments== | ==Comments== | ||
* | * 11/11 expected the price to go up. | ||
* 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period). | |||
* 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers. | |||
* Stories were better. | |||
* 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory. | |||
* 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct. | |||
* 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around. | |||
* 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence. | |||
* 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040. | |||
* The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20) | |||
* The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20). | |||
==Unexpected Observations== | ==Unexpected Observations== | ||
Latest revision as of 22:35, 26 September 2017
 Project name
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 Main project page Previous entry Next entry
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Entry title
Comments
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New DataParticipant 1
Participant 2
Faults
Corrections
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