User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/03

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(Autocreate 2013/04/03 Entry for User:Alexander_L._Davis/Notebook/Backdating)
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==Entry title==
==Entry title==
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* Insert content here...
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* Pilot test two. 11 additional participants
==Comments==
==Comments==
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*Insert content here...  
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* 11/11 expected the price to go up.
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* 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period).
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* 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers.
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* Stories were better.
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* 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory.
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* 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct.
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* 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around.
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* 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence.
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* 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040.
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* The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20)
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* The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20).
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==Unexpected Observations==
==Unexpected Observations==

Current revision

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Entry title

  • Pilot test two. 11 additional participants

Comments

  • 11/11 expected the price to go up.
  • 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period).
  • 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers.
  • Stories were better.
  • 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory.
  • 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct.
  • 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around.
  • 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence.
  • 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040.
  • The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20)
  • The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20).


Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 1

  • Insert content here...

Participant 2

  • Insert content here...

Faults

  • Insert content here...
  • Add to error repertiore...

Corrections

  • Insert content here...



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