User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/03

From OpenWetWare

< User:Alexander L. Davis | Notebook | Backdating | 2013 | 04
Revision as of 13:30, 3 April 2013 by Alexander L. Davis (Talk | contribs)
(diff) ←Older revision | Current revision (diff) | Newer revision→ (diff)
Jump to: navigation, search
Project name Main project page
Previous entry      Next entry

Entry title

  • Pilot test two. 11 additional participants


  • 11/11 expected the price to go up.
  • 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period).
  • 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers.
  • Stories were better.
  • 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory.
  • 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct.
  • 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around.
  • 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence.
  • 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040.
  • The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20)
  • The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20).

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 1

  • Insert content here...

Participant 2

  • Insert content here...


  • Insert content here...
  • Add to error repertiore...


  • Insert content here...

Personal tools