User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Error Models and Data Sharing in Hindsight/2012/02/09: Difference between revisions

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==Comments==
==Comments==
* Insert content here...
* Rethink Fischhoff's debiasing paper; it seems like this task could be crazy, and we have to make sure it isnt before we conclude that people are crazy;
 
==Unexpected Observations==
==Unexpected Observations==
* Participant believed that his theory would be 100% true if he expected the child to place the dot in area A EXACTLY 50%of the time and area C EXACTLY 50% of the time; this (A,B,C)->(50, 0, 50) distribution should have very low prior probability though.
* Participant believed that his theory would be 100% true if he expected the child to place the dot in area A EXACTLY 50%of the time and area C EXACTLY 50% of the time; this (A,B,C)->(50, 0, 50) distribution should have very low prior probability though.

Revision as of 11:31, 9 February 2012

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Entry title

  • Qualitative Interview, participant 9

Comments

  • Rethink Fischhoff's debiasing paper; it seems like this task could be crazy, and we have to make sure it isnt before we conclude that people are crazy;

Unexpected Observations

  • Participant believed that his theory would be 100% true if he expected the child to place the dot in area A EXACTLY 50%of the time and area C EXACTLY 50% of the time; this (A,B,C)->(50, 0, 50) distribution should have very low prior probability though.

New Hypotheses

  • The conditional # and type of revisions is very interesting. This person received no feedback and made no revisions. The new hypothesis proposed was just restatement of the old hypothesis. Other participants have generating new hypotheses of error models, etc.

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Just one qualitative interview. Other participant was a no-show.

Faults

  • Participant was confused about the P(theory) question. Might want to just use the word "theory" to clarify these questions. People tend to naturally call it a theory, so much bias is not expected to be added.
  • There are confusing questions when the participant does not get feedback: revising hypothesis, etc.; needs to be fixed
  • Need to fix hypothesis revision questions to allow them to skip to end of survey if they dont want to revise
  • With data sharing:

1) need to specify the curriculum for them to be able to make judgment 2) Need to specify that the "response" is where the child put the dot and not personal information, etc.

Corrections

  • Insert content here...



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