OpenDocProject:Stats400/2010/08/25
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Notes Lecture 2Probability: any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. Probability TheoryThe outcome of a random phenomenon (such as having a heart attack or being in a car accident) is unpredictable. However, in a very long series of independe~t repetition~ a stable attern emerges that can be described in terms of observed relative frequencIes of the vanous possIble outcomes. Consider a particular outcome. We are interested in the theoretical probability of the outcome: P(outcome) = fraction of times the outcome would occur in an infinitely long series of independent repetitions. To estimate (guess) the probability we consider a number of independent repetitions and compute the experimental probability, P(outcome) = number of successful repetitions total number of repetitions = relative frequency of the outcome.
