User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/25

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Entry title

  • Participant Three

Comments

  • Person failed to account for the uptick in prices.
  • Person judged that the prices would go down, but not nearly enough.

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 3

  • Predicted prices would go down, but not enough.
  • Based theory on switch to alternative fuels due to pollution and government regulation.
  • New explanation used old one with an additional statement (warmer weather leading to lower demand).
  • Made constant confidence estimates for forecasts.
  • Made forecasts with similar pattern to prior data.

Faults

  • Confused by the similarity judgments; this needs to be rephrased.
  • I think the P(Theory) question is not specific enough. People seem to think it is asking "how likely is it that your explanation describes a relevant causal factor" rather than "your explanation describes all the relevant causal factors"

Corrections

  • Changed similarity question to: "How similar are the actual prices of coal between 1980 and 2010 to what you would predict based on Explanation Two?"



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