- Pilot test two. 11 additional participants
- 11/11 expected the price to go up.
- 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period).
- 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers.
- Stories were better.
- 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory.
- 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct.
- 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around.
- 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence.
- 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040.
- The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20)
- The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20).
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