User:Elisabetta Lambertini/Notebook/Salmonella/2010/10/22

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Risk assessment scenario

Risk from Salmonella in almonds - activity log

  • Run the previous Danyluk 2006 model without changes, for comparison. Pooled results from 10 simulations of 10,000 iterations each. Results very different from current model. I don't agree with several assumptions in the old model. How to phrase the comparison?
  • Outbreak scenario: changed to reflect that we know concentrations from batches recalled from retailers, which sat at room temperature for 7 months. Look only at the batches that were shipped in the second half of the outbreak (those that were tested after recall). We can assume that batches would have stayed at retailer longer, with storage time as per distribution defined before, but subtracting time before february. In alternative, would have to back-calculate the concentration of each serving based on the retail storage time distribution. This seems too complicated (as argument, math is easy). Can back-calculate using average time from recall and tests, 7 months, then proceed from february at retailer.


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